RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2024 07:34PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	11%	+79%	-15%
No	10%	89%	-79%	+15%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2024 12:57PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	30%	3%	+27%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	60%	4%	+56%	+1%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	99%	1%	+98%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	9%	33%	-24%	+3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	76%	40%	+36%	+1%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 10:33PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	85%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	55%	+30%	+6%
No	15%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	45%	-30%	-6%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	9%	0%	+9%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	26%	0%	+26%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	55%	22%	+33%	-8%
More than or equal to 28%	10%	77%	-67%	+8%

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