Forecasted Questions
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 57% | +28% | +11% |
| No | 15% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 43% | -28% | -11% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 9% | 0% | +9% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 26% | 1% | +25% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 55% | 4% | +51% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 10% | 94% | -84% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:37PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:37PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 24% | +56% | -2% |
| No | 20% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 76% | -56% | +2% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 31% | +44% | +6% |
| No | 25% | 69% | -44% | -6% |