ben

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0.004107

Relative Brier Score

33

Forecasts

7

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 2 45 33 298
Comments 0 4 8 7 50
Questions Forecasted 1 2 15 11 48
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 6 8 7 67
 Definitions
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ben
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New Prediction
ben
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
45% (+40%)
Yes
55% (-40%)
No

Adjusting based on current market caps. The hyperscalers also seem to show no signs of regretting or slowing their AI investments.

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ben
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Initial read is that this is pretty unlikely:

- The odds of a large(r) refugee crisis from Gaza have probably receded. Even if that conflict continues to drag on, it seems unlikely to be as high-intensity moving forward. That's probably good news for Suez Canal traffic (or is the intensifying Israel/Hezbollah conflict even worse for Suez Canal traffic?).

- Economy is still growing: 2.4% last year but down from 3.8% the prior year

- They're making what appear to be legitimate efforts at reform to improve their economy

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Why might you be wrong?

The situation between Israel/Hezbollah/Iran deteriorates and drags down the economies of most players in the region.

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New Prediction
Coming down further given the developments in the north. Intensifying conflict between Israel and Hezbollah means less likely ceasefire.
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New Prediction

Coming down based on WSJ report that Biden admin does not expect a cease-fire during his term: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=hp_lead_pos1

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New Prediction
Reducing due to lack of apparent progress
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ben
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
ben
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (-3%)
Yes
95% (+3%)
No

Ticking down as the gap grows. Delays on next gen chips also expected to eat into NVIDIA's margins.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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