-0.938758
Relative Brier Score
296
Forecasts
61
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 1 | 7 | 54 | 31 | 296 |
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Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 61 |
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Mission: Diplomacy,
Future Bowl,
Manufacturing,
Microelectronics,
Iran Nuclear Program
Coming down based on WSJ report that Biden admin does not expect a cease-fire during his term: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Active Forecaster
Ticking down as the gap grows. Delays on next gen chips also expected to eat into NVIDIA's margins.
Recent base rates suggest there is a pretty high likelihood of this happening. Great links from @Rene and @Raan_Mend
It also appears that responses from the rest of the world are trending away from deterrence. From War on the Rocks:
Instead, competition for influence and security partnerships in Africa between the United States, Russia, and China prevails over policies to punish or manage post-coup governments. Specifically, Western nations are selective in their response to coups, often turning a blind eye to those that do not serve their interests. For more than two months, the U.S. delayed formally declaring the military ouster of Niger’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, a coup d’état, prioritizing instead the country’s critical role in supporting U.S. counter-terrorism activities in the region. This undermines U.S. efforts to reverse democratic backsliding and harms its long-term national interests in Africa.
Doesn't appear to be much of a reason that either of the latter 2 options would happen and no signaling from either about it.
I suppose the oil well option could be triggered by uses of force (e.g. water cannons or something) that are not an all out attack.
I couldn't find much about Russia & China's official positions and whether they support Venezuela's claim. Could be pivotal for any UN security council actions.
It seems like Maduro has plenty to deal with domestically at the moment, but maybe he would consider a distraction useful?