Coming way down given the gap between them and Apple: https://companiesmarketcap.com/
0.019474
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 28 | 6 | 306 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 109 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 51 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 68 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-40%)
Yes
85%
(+40%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Apple could report terrible earnings
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Chemical
1%
Biological
1%
Radiological
1%
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
Chemical: This seems the highest by far. They're most accessible and we see regular accusations about their use (even if confirmation is difficult). E.g. Burma’s Army accused of chemical weapons use and Sudan’s Military Has Used Chemical Weapons Twice, U.S. Officials Say
Biological: I found a bunch of history of research into biological weapons, but basically no use by state actors (especially in recent history). Base rate of this is apparently extremely low.
Radiological: This seems much more likely for a non-state actor than a state actor.
Nuclear: The nuclear taboo is so strong that the downside risk of use seems so much higher than any potential upside.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe new developments make the world more volatile, increasing the frequency of conflict and existential nature of them.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(+10%)
Yes
45%
(-10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming up a bit with NVIDIA in the lead.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Volatility
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Less than or equal to 59
31%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
34%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
18%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
6%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Based on current count (23), 60-69 or 70-79 seems most likely to me. You'd expect things could taper off after the election, though.
Given that the AfD is unlikely to be included in the governing coalition, you wouldn't expect Russia to back off that much though.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The past couple years are all over the place.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 10, 2025 06:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jan 10, 2025 to Jan 10, 2026
80%
No
Jan 10, 2025 to Jan 10, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Plenty of resources going into AI/LLM's and impressive models already being released. Doesn't seem like a huge stretch, even if it was just temporarily.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It only takes a single day at the top of the leaderboard, so a single release could top the leaderboard. Plus there is plenty of talent & effort going into this.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Big gap at this point and not a lot of time left
Why might you be wrong?
Market is volatile right now. Maybe tariff news crushes Apple.