ben

Adjusting based on current market caps. The hyperscalers also seem to show no signs of regretting or slowing their AI investments.

Initial read is that this is pretty unlikely:

- The odds of a large(r) refugee crisis from Gaza have probably receded. Even if that conflict continues to drag on, it seems unlikely to be as high-intensity moving forward. That's probably good news for Suez Canal traffic (or is the intensifying Israel/Hezbollah conflict even worse for Suez Canal traffic?).

- Economy is still growing: 2.4% last year but down from 3.8% the prior year

- They're making what appear to be legitimate efforts at reform to improve their economy

Coming down further given the developments in the north. Intensifying conflict between Israel and Hezbollah means less likely ceasefire.

Coming down based on WSJ report that Biden admin does not expect a cease-fire during his term: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Reducing due to lack of apparent progress

Ticking down as the gap grows. Delays on next gen chips also expected to eat into NVIDIA's margins.

Confirmed previous forecast