Coming down further given the developments in the north. Intensifying conflict between Israel and Hezbollah means less likely ceasefire.
-0.05933
Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 7 | 54 | 31 | 296 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 46 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 47 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 61 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
6%
(-6%)
Yes
94%
(+6%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-16%)
Yes
88%
(+16%)
No
Coming down based on WSJ report that Biden admin does not expect a cease-fire during his term: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-deal-unlikely-before-end-of-bidens-term-u-s-officials-say-efc21510?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(-7%)
Yes
72%
(+7%)
No
Reducing due to lack of apparent progress
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
Yes
95%
(+3%)
No
Ticking down as the gap grows. Delays on next gen chips also expected to eat into NVIDIA's margins.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Yes
65%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 05:48PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
67%
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
33%
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Recent base rates suggest there is a pretty high likelihood of this happening. Great links from @Rene and @Raan_Mend
It also appears that responses from the rest of the world are trending away from deterrence. From War on the Rocks:
Instead, competition for influence and security partnerships in Africa between the United States, Russia, and China prevails over policies to punish or manage post-coup governments. Specifically, Western nations are selective in their response to coups, often turning a blind eye to those that do not serve their interests. For more than two months, the U.S. delayed formally declaring the military ouster of Niger’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, a coup d’état, prioritizing instead the country’s critical role in supporting U.S. counter-terrorism activities in the region. This undermines U.S. efforts to reverse democratic backsliding and harms its long-term national interests in Africa.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
5%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
2%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Doesn't appear to be much of a reason that either of the latter 2 options would happen and no signaling from either about it.
I suppose the oil well option could be triggered by uses of force (e.g. water cannons or something) that are not an all out attack.
I couldn't find much about Russia & China's official positions and whether they support Venezuela's claim. Could be pivotal for any UN security council actions.
It seems like Maduro has plenty to deal with domestically at the moment, but maybe he would consider a distraction useful?
Files