ctsats

Current situation:

North Korea tells UN it is speeding up nuclear weapons programme - The Guardian, Nov 5

North Korea’s UN envoy has said Pyongyang will accelerate a buildup of its nuclear weapons programme just days after it test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time this year at a moment of rising tensions with the west.

Kim Song, North Korea’s ambassador to the UN, said during a security council meeting on Monday that Pyongyang would accelerate the programme to “counter any threat presented by hostile nuclear weapons states”.

This comes on top of yet another warning by the SK military:

South Korean military says the North appears poised to conduct nuclear and ICBM tests - ABC News, Oct 30

 South Korea’s military intelligence agency told lawmakers Wednesday [Oct 30] that North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and is close to test-firing a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States.  [...]

South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency believes that North Korea has finished preparations to conduct a nuclear test at its testing ground in the northeastern town of Punggye-ri, with the detonation likely to be carried out at tunnel No. 3, said Lee Seong Kweun, one of the lawmakers who attended the hearing.

The warning seemed to be spot-on regarding the firing of an ICBM on Oct 30 (for previous false alarms regarding a nuclear test, see my comment below).

The reliable 38 North has implied that Punggye-ri does not seem ready for a test; however, their last update is from Sep 11, with the related satellite imagery as of Sep 3, i.e. more than 2 months ago.

Somewhat more recently (Oct 14), Beyond Parallel argued:

A satellite image of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Testing Facility acquired on October 4, 2024, a few days before the rapid escalation of tension, shows that the facility continues to be well maintained. While no new dramatic activity is observable at the test site, the actual timing between a decision to test and the test itself may be relatively short as most preparations have already been completed and those that aren’t can easily be accomplished at night or under periods of inclement weather that would obscure satellite imagery.

Increasing marginally...

Nvidia's excursions to #1, although still brief, are becoming more frequent (June 18, Oct 25, Nov 4).

1/3 (2 out of 6 months) of the initial 6-month forecasting period has now passed without a successful coup; there are also 14 months since the last successful attempt (Gabon, Aug 2023).

This is a rolling question of course, and decreasing through time would not be appropriate. Confirming.

There seems to be consensus among analysts that Nvidia's Q3 results (to be announced later in November) will be impressive, and that this will positively affect its share price:

Nvidia: You Haven't Seen Anything Yet - Seeking Alpha, Oct 31

Nvidia to reap billions in big tech AI spending - The Street, Nov 3

The Times of Israel, Nov 4:

A Hamas delegation led by top official Khalil al-Hayya reportedly met with the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate yesterday [Nov 3] but did not achieve any progress on a ceasefire and hostage release deal.