ctsats

We now have Q3 data for all OECD countries save for Iceland (data explorer).

As I have shown below, the weighting scheme used for the aggregate reading is very similar (although not identical) with the weights used by the OECD for the calculation of the global CPI. So, here is the situation regarding the OECD countries with a weight >= 2.0:

In other news, the US reading for November also just came in at a comfortable level of 71.7 (data explorer; surprisingly enough, the October reading is still pending). I have updated accordingly the summary table below.

As I have already argued, the situation seems consistent with a scenario where the Q3 reading does not dramatically depart from the status quo of ~70.35 in either direction.

Affirming 100% for the [70, 74) bin.

Time issues aside (we have only 15 days before the question's cutoff date), here is The Guardian, today:

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances”. It was unclear whether that formulation also included troops drawn from Nato countries operating under a separate non-Nato command.

I am not sure why the journalist insists that "it was unclear" whether this objection also applies to NATO countries under a non-NATO command; this seems crystal clear to me, and it has been consistently repeated several times from very high level Russian officials...

Q3 data for a whole bunch of European countries were just released (data explorer); here is the situation so far with three of the largest EU economies (data for Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands are not available yet):

Combined with the data in my summary table below, this seems to further confirm the expectation that we will not have any dramatic departure from the current status of ~70.35 in either direction.

Affirming 100% for the bin [70, 74).

Currently at  164.7M, with the latest addition on Dec 1.

Linear extrapolation now gives 164.7/11.5*24=344M, at the very upper levels of the lowest bin.

Adjusting accordingly.

Currently at 310.4M, with the latest addition on Dec 1.

Linear projection now gives 310.4/11.5*24=648M, still into the lowest bin.

Adjusting accordingly.

Still at 145.7M, 11.5 months into the question. Linear extrapolation gives 145.7/11.5*24=304M, well into the lowest bin. Adjusting accordingly.

Increasing, after @geoffodlum's unearthing below of an incident from Nov 2024 which could possibly resolve the question positively should it were related to the energy or transportation sectors.