36th
Accuracy Rank

ctsats

Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis

-0.891323

Relative Brier Score

302

Forecasts

659

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 48 472 411 732
Comments 4 27 388 322 878
Questions Forecasted 3 20 44 32 53
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 21 501 384 1054
 Definitions
New Prediction
ctsats
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
46% (+1%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
54% (-1%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025

Increasing marginally as time passes.

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New Prediction
ctsats
made their 22nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
42% (-3%)
Yes
58% (+3%)
No

As we speak, Nvidia is back at #2, albeit with a small margin from Apple: https://companiesmarketcap.com/



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New Prediction
ctsats
made their 20th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025

Elon Musk met Iran's UN ambassador in New York - BBC, Nov 15

Elon Musk met Iran's ambassador to the UN a day before he was made joint head of Donald Trump's new cost cutting department, the BBC's US partner CBS has confirmed.

The meeting took place at ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani 's residence in New York, with the aim of discussing how to ease tensions between the two nations, according to the New York Times which first reported the story.

It is not clear if President-elect Trump or his national security team were aware of the meeting.

Several of the recent appointees to Trump's national security team, including Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio are known Iran hawks, believing the US should take a tough stance against Iran.

The US does not have diplomatic relations with Tehran but a private meeting with Musk provided a workaround, allowing Iran to avoid a meeting with an American official, according to the New York Times.

The newspaper also said that Musk requested the meeting with the ambassador, and that it was described by Iranian officials as “positive” and “good news".


Iran ‘categorically denies’ UN envoy met Elon Musk - CNN, Nov 16

Iran’s foreign ministry denied that a meeting was held between the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations and Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person and close ally of US President-elect Donald Trump, Iranian state media reported Saturday.

The New York Times reported the meeting took place earlier this week, citing two Iranian officials. Associated Press also reported a meeting between the two, citing a US official briefed by a foreign colleague.

But Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei “categorically denied” that a meeting took place and was “surprised” by the coverage in US media, state-run IRNA said.

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New Prediction
ctsats
made their 21st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
45% (+7%)
Yes
55% (-7%)
No

Moving close to a coin toss; certainly both possible and plausible.

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New Prediction
ctsats
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (0%)
Yes
Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025
85% (0%)
No
Nov 15, 2024 to May 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister on X (Nov 9):

 Iran is NOT after nuclear weapons, period. This is a policy based on Islamic teachings and our security calculations. Confidence-building is needed from both sides. It is not a one-way street
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New Prediction

Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister on X (Nov 9):

Iran is NOT after nuclear weapons, period. This is a policy based on Islamic teachings and our security calculations. Confidence-building is needed from both sides. It is not a one-way street

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New Comment

The world’s most capable open weight model is now made in China - ImportAI, Nov 11

The world’s best open weight model might now be Chinese – that’s the takeaway from a recent Tencent paper that introduces Hunyuan-Large, a MoE model with 389 billion parameters (52 billion activated). [...]

This paper seems generally very competent and sensible. The only key differentiator between this system and one trained in the West is compute – on the scaling law graph this model seems to come in somewhere between 10^24 and 10^25 flops of compute, whereas many Western frontier models are now sitting at between 10^25 and 10^26 flops. I think if this team of Tencent researchers had access to equivalent compute as Western counterparts then this wouldn’t just be a world class open weight model – it might be competitive with the far more experience proprietary models made by Anthropic, OpenAI, and so on.

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