Upgrading forecast taking into consideration news about North Korea
1.301249
Relative Brier Score
28
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0
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Future Bowl
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(+5%)
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
If this is not fake news: North Korea resumes weapons testing in December 2021 and launches two ballistic missiles that land near Japanese waters. The launch was the country's first public weapons test since it launched its developmental, longest-range liquid-fueled Hwasong-17 ICBM last month. Does it mean it already happened? I am not sure about my divergence from other team members.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2023 02:59AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 30, 2023 to Feb 28, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
Yes
China to reopen borders, drop Covid quarantine. The decision is the country’s last step in shedding three years of zero-Covid and pivoting to living with the virus. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3204601/china-reopen-borders-drop-covid-quarantine-january-8
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New Prediction
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Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
changing it to 0 as the question is closing
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Updating given the remaining days of March