Forecasted Questions
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 11:14AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 01, 2024 11:14AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | 23% | +6% | -6% |
| No | 71% | 77% | -6% | +6% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 12:05PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 06, 2024 12:05PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Oct 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2025 | Jan 6, 2025 | 8% | +6% | -1% |
| No | 86% | Oct 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2025 | Jan 6, 2025 | 92% | -6% | +1% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 06, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 5% | 9% | -4% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 12:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 06, 2024 12:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2024 12:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 06, 2024 12:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 12:52AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 15, 2024 12:52AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 15% | -11% | -37% |
| No | 96% | 85% | +11% | +37% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 12:56AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 15, 2024 12:56AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025 | Jan 15, 2025 | 22% | +6% | -10% |
| No | 72% | Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025 | Jan 15, 2025 | 78% | -6% | +10% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 12:57AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 15, 2024 12:57AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 97% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 12:58AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 15, 2024 12:58AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 11% | -9% | -5% |
| No | 98% | 89% | +9% | +5% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 02:46PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 02:46PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |