Forecasted Questions
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 03:02PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 03:02PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 25% | 16% | +9% | -3% |
| Bolivia | 25% | 22% | +3% | -8% |
| Ecuador | 15% | 12% | +3% | -1% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | 35% | -4% | -5% |
| No | 69% | 65% | +4% | +5% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:03PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 05:03PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | 34% | +23% | +11% |
| No | 43% | 66% | -23% | -11% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Dec 1, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Dec 1, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:08PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 05:08PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 8% | -2% | -2% |
| No | 94% | 92% | +2% | +2% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:21PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 1% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 94% | Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Dec 14, 2024 | 99% | -5% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:27PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:27PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 9% | +7% | -3% |
| No | 84% | 91% | -7% | +3% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:30PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:30PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27% | 21% | +6% | +0% |
| No | 73% | 79% | -6% | +0% |