Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025 | Feb 14, 2025 | 12% | +2% | +4% |
| No | 86% | Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025 | Feb 14, 2025 | 88% | -2% | -4% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 1% | 9% | -8% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 1% | 6% | -5% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:39PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:39PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Odesa | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 2% | +0% | -1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38% | Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025 | Feb 14, 2025 | 22% | +16% | +1% |
| No | 62% | Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025 | Feb 14, 2025 | 78% | -16% | -1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Nov 14, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 97% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(21 hours ago)
Nov 21, 2024 03:06PM UTC
(21 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 27% | -9% | +1% |
| No | 82% | 73% | +9% | -1% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(21 hours ago)
Nov 21, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(21 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 25% | +3% | +1% |
| No | 72% | 75% | -3% | -1% |