Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 28, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 5% | -2% | +1% |
No | 97% | Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 95% | +2% | -1% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 5% | 9% | -4% | -4% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 1% | 7% | -6% | -1% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 11:14AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 11:14AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 29% | 25% | +4% | -4% |
No | 71% | 75% | -4% | +4% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Odesa | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Sep 04, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:08PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:08PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 8% | -3% | +1% |
No | 95% | Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 92% | +3% | -1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 98% | 96% | +2% | +0% |
No | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 28% | 21% | +7% | -13% |
No | 72% | 79% | -7% | +13% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 01:26PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 01:26PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Sep 20, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -1% |
No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +1% |