I think there's a low chance considering Iran's slowing enrichment of uranium and the fact that an attack on Iranian nuclear capabilities would surely lead to international war.
0.111006
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 2, 2023 08:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 2, 2023 to May 2, 2024
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 26, 2023 10:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Oct 26, 2023 to Nov 26, 2023
I think both sides may realize that they're headed to mutual destruction, but Israel seems better poised to survive and achieve their goals.
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Fellow forecaster @harrisonmccarty I would like to share some public available information regarding the military cappabilities of Israel and the terrorists of Hamas, in order to add a perspective:
(source: perplexity LLM AI)
quote: "It is important to note that a straight comparison of the military strength of the Hamas group and the Israeli armed forces is not possible since Hamas fights a terrorist, unconventional battle" end of quote.
Also, regarding nuclear power:
(source: perplexity LLM AI)
So, based on this data, I do not agree with the statement in your rationale about the mutual destruction... Based on the premise that other actors do not add to this conflict: If Iran directly shows desire of intervention, perhaps Pakistan or Sudan.... the scenario could change a lot.
best regards.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
5%
(0%)
Tunisia
nobody is about to recognize israel
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Kuwait
0%
Oman
0%
Qatar
0%
Saudi Arabia
5%
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
I don’t think any MENA country is going to recognize Israel given the current paradigm. There would need to be a massive change in international relations for any of the countries to recognize Israel. If that does happen in the short time proposed in the prompt, Tunisia would be most likely to recognize Israel first.
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Why might you be wrong?
If Saudi Arabia goes first in recognizing Israel, I could foresee the other countries quickly following suit.
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Iran attacking Israel would certainly lead to Iran’s destruction