Confirmed previous forecast
-0.102933
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
441
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 24 | 403 | 70 | 1016 |
| Comments | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 89 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 8 | 21 | 11 | 85 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 72 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Mar 29, 2025 to Mar 29, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025
98%
(+1%)
No
Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
No recent positive development
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some type of deal in the Middle East initiated by the US.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Going down given recent developments of Israel further cutting down humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Why might you be wrong?
International pressure might lead to Israel finding a more peaceful solution.