Confirmed previous forecast
0.180356
Relative Brier Score
851
Forecasts
70
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 10 | 39 | 494 | 346 | 851 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
Questions Forecasted | 10 | 11 | 32 | 21 | 81 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 70 |
Definitions |
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+4%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025
90%
(-4%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files