Confirmed previous forecast
0.40849
Relative Brier Score
361
Forecasts
25
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 10 | 39 | 494 | 346 | 851 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Questions Forecasted | 10 | 11 | 32 | 21 | 81 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 70 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+4%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025
90%
(-4%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files