87th
Accuracy Rank

johnnycaffeine

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? -0.000767
    Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.019839
    Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.024601
    Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.18601
    Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.01231
    Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? -0.009262
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.000161
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.000103
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.0085
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.00637
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.0032
    Oct 1, 2021 06:31PM [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? -0.050826
    Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.014
    Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.005345
    Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.003242
    Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? -0.001526
    Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.008972
    Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? 0.013226
     
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