0.172801
Relative Brier Score
58
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 8 | 62 | 58 | 71 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 17 | 15 | 17 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Definitions |
lowering chances slightly since it seems Tunisia's elections do not count as a 'self-coup'
Some of us had already expressed the opinion that most probably it was not going to be a new self-coup:
https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139898
https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/142186 (and comments underneath)
Why do you think you're right?
SDF is likely to stay in control and the US has a vested interest (as well as base in Deir Ezzor) in keeping them in power in the fight against ISIS. Syrian regime forces have launched raids against SDF posts in recent months, but with minimal impact.
Why might you be wrong?
SDF is dealing with influx of people fleeing Lebanon due to Israeli strikes which could be destabilizing in the long term.
updating likelihood as both sides are digging in