Confirmed previous forecast
-0.105566
Relative Brier Score
71
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 8 | 62 | 58 | 71 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 17 | 15 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Africa,
Russian Disinformation
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(-6%)
Yes
Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025
40%
(+6%)
No
Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025
lowering chances slightly since it seems Tunisia's elections do not count as a 'self-coup'
Files
Some of us had already expressed the opinion that most probably it was not going to be a new self-coup:
https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139898
https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/142186 (and comments underneath)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
SDF is likely to stay in control and the US has a vested interest (as well as base in Deir Ezzor) in keeping them in power in the fight against ISIS. Syrian regime forces have launched raids against SDF posts in recent months, but with minimal impact.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
SDF is dealing with influx of people fleeing Lebanon due to Israeli strikes which could be destabilizing in the long term.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
90%
(+10%)
No
updating likelihood as both sides are digging in
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(-10%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(-3%)
Tunisia
updating percentages based on recent events
Files
