Confirmed previous forecast
-0.105566
Relative Brier Score
82
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 11 | 70 | 69 | 82 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Africa,
Russian Disinformation
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
(-20%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
60%
(+20%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Russian credibility dropping with nations in/around the Sahel making me think that the 'coup belt' is unlikely to expand in 6 months. No likely candidates for a coup in the north of the continent. Keeping estimate at 40 because of high frequency of coups in past decades
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files