Confirmed previous forecast
-0.278746
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 64 | 62 | 75 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
25%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
65%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
10%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 16, 2024 07:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files