RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 06:55PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	34%	34%	+0%	-1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	54%	53%	+1%	+1%
More than or equal to 80	12%	8%	+4%	+0%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:05PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	5%	7%	-2%	-1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	44%	35%	+9%	+1%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	43%	44%	-1%	+1%
More than or equal to 90	8%	11%	-3%	-1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:07PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:07PM	2%	+1%	-1%
No	97%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:07PM	98%	-1%	+1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
41 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:07PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
60 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:09PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:09PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+1%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:09PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:09PM	2%	-1%	+2%
No	99%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:09PM	98%	+1%	-2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:13PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:18PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Kenya	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Ethiopia	22%	24%	-2%	-1%
Nigeria	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:23PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	8%	+6%	-1%
No	86%	92%	-6%	+1%

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