RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:09PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	7%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:09PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	0%	+2%	+0%
No	98%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	100%	-2%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
71 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
69 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:11PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:12PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	37%	+3%	+1%
No	60%	63%	-3%	-1%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	-1%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
51 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	98%	+2%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
63 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
46 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

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