RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	0%	+1%	0%
No	99%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	100%	-1%	0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	99%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
41 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	0%
No	98%	95%	+3%	0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
70 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
68 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
48 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	99%	+0%	0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	41%	37%	+4%	0%
No	59%	63%	-4%	0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
68 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	12%	9%	+3%	0%
Su-35 fighter jets	3%	7%	-4%	0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	3%	4%	-1%	0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	1%	1%	+0%	0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	0%

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