RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:07PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(21 hours from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:08PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
No	100%	97%	+3%	+1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
60 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:09PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:09PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:09PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:09PM	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:09PM	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:13PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:18PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Kenya	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
Ethiopia	22%	24%	-2%	+0%
Nigeria	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(21 hours from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:21PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	Mar 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026	Jun 27, 2025 07:21PM	8%	+4%	+0%
No	88%	Mar 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026	Jun 27, 2025 07:21PM	92%	-4%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:23PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	9%	+5%	+0%
No	86%	91%	-5%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:23PM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	15%	11%	+4%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	85%	86%	-1%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season