Forecasted Questions
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
56 Forecasts
56 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:30PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 07:30PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025 | Apr 27, 2025 07:30PM | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025 | Apr 27, 2025 07:30PM | 99% | +0% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:30PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 07:30PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2026 | Jun 27, 2025 07:30PM | 10% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 95% | Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2026 | Jun 27, 2025 07:30PM | 90% | +5% | +1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
47 Forecasts
47 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:34PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 07:34PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Mar 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026 | Jun 27, 2025 07:34PM | 8% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 95% | Mar 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026 | Jun 27, 2025 07:34PM | 92% | +3% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
59 Forecasts
59 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:36PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 07:36PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 7% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 94% | 93% | +1% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
40 Forecasts
40 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:36PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 07:36PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 6% | 7% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:06PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 08:06PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 37% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 65% | 63% | +2% | +1% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:07PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 27, 2025 08:07PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |