RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	97%	+1%	+0%
No	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
69 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 09:40AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	9%	9%	+0%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	2%	6%	-4%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 09:41AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	5%	+3%	0%
No	92%	95%	-3%	0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
62 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 09:52AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	7%	-6%	-1%
No	99%	93%	+6%	+1%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 09:56AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
More than or equal to 28%	100%	94%	+6%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:30AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025	Feb 19, 2025	23%	-14%	+1%
No	91%	Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025	Feb 19, 2025	77%	+14%	-1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
44 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:47AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Feb 19, 2025	5%	+1%	+0%
No	94%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Feb 19, 2025	95%	-1%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:48AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	38%	31%	+7%	-1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	60%	64%	-4%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	2%	4%	-2%	+1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
60 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:51AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Feb 19, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

martinsluis

About: