RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	6%	+6%	-1%
No	88%	94%	-6%	+1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	33%	25%	+8%	-3%
No	67%	75%	-8%	+3%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	3%	+1%	+0%
No	96%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	97%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
35 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	5%	-2%	-1%
No	97%	95%	+2%	+1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
52 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	22%	-8%	-4%
No	86%	78%	+8%	+4%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
64 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	11%	+1%	+0%
No	88%	89%	-1%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
62 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:18PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:19PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Oct 24, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	5%	+5%	+1%
No	90%	Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	95%	-5%	-1%

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