Confirmed previous forecast
-0.044811
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 1, 2024 02:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 1, 2024 02:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 28, 2024 06:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
85%
(0%)
No
Apr 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 28, 2024 06:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
Apr 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 28, 2024 06:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 28, 2024 06:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-5%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
90%
(+5%)
No
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
Updating forecast; continued political stalemate.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Israel is winding its war down in Gaza while clashes in the south of Lebanon are intensifying.
Why might you be wrong?
The Israeli public could pressure Netanyahu domestically to return to the status quo.