Realiatocally will only happen if he dies. Found on reddits theydidthemath page that an average 86 year old in the us has 0.036% to die on a given day and we have about 45 days to 1st of may. Thats 1.6%. He is youger and sporty + it seems he does less risky daily behavior. Bt has some other risk factors like assassination or smth so maybe that evens out.
0.003111
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Realiatocally will only happen if he dies. Found on reddits theydidthemath page that an average 86 year old in the us has 0.036% to die on a given day and we have about 45 days to 1st of may. Thats 1.6%. He is youger and sporty + it seems he does less risky daily behavior. Bt has some other risk factors like assassination or smth so maybe that evens out.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
I assessed intentions wrong