ndhibbler

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? 0.300083
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.023153
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? 1.250908
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? 1.333252
    Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? 0.072584
    Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.011437
    Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.03629
    Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.108064
    Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? -0.044686
    Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.091667
    Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? 0.006023
    Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? -0.081989
    Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? -0.076633
    Sep 5, 2023 08:34AM Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? 0.032623
    Sep 1, 2023 09:00PM How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? 0.022271
    Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? 0.010427
    Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023? 0.011376
    Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023? -0.001451
    Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023? 0.021361
    Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria? -0.000004
     
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