RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.0
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.063366
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM	Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?	-0.033492
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	0.355324
Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023	0.002985
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.005373
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.303361
Feb 15, 2023 01:01PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Mar 2023	-0.001759
Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	-0.000035
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.001508
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	0.020805
Oct 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)	0.0
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	-0.192329
Sep 17, 2022 07:16PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Oct 2022	-0.061682
Sep 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022)	0.0
Aug 15, 2022 01:00PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Sep 2022	-0.000407