RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?	-0.033492
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	0.355324
Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023	0.002985
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.005373
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.303361
Feb 15, 2023 01:01PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Mar 2023	-0.001759
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	-0.000035
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.001508
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	0.020805
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)	0.0
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM UTC	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	-0.192329
Sep 17, 2022 07:16PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Oct 2022	-0.061682
Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022)	0.0
Aug 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Sep 2022	-0.000407

ndhibbler

About: