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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
Biotechnology and Biomedical Capabilities
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
0.050086
Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
0.114751
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
0.033609
May 1, 2024 04:01AM
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
0.026114
May 1, 2024 04:01AM
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
0.018539
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
0.10355
Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
0.067398
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
0.022532
Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
-0.000527
Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
0.000007
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?
0.072074
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan?
0.042582
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?
0.020167
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?
0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces?
0.016619
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?
0.150943
Jan 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)
0.005148
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
0.041798
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
-0.000572
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
0.005224
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😁
:grin:
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:+1:
☺️
:relaxed:
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:smile:
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:sob:
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:kiss:
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:unamused:
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😌
:relieved:
😀
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:yum:
👌
:ok_hand:
😐
:neutral_face:
😕
:confused:
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