ndhibbler

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.050086
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? 0.114751
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? 0.033609
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.026114
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.018539
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? 0.10355
    Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.067398
    Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? 0.022532
    Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? -0.000527
    Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? 0.000007
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran? 0.072074
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan? 0.042582
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India? 0.020167
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? 0.0
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? 0.016619
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? 0.150943
    Jan 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) 0.005148
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? 0.041798
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000572
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? 0.005224
     
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