ndhibbler

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict? -0.002127
    Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.153864
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? 0.0
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? -0.000003
    Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) 0.10816
    Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.179041
    Jul 2, 2023 04:00AM How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? -0.002417
    Jul 1, 2023 04:01AM Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023? -0.001679
    Jul 1, 2023 04:00AM Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? 0.088586
    Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) 0.020129
    Jun 1, 2023 12:45AM On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center? -0.074298
    May 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.12465
    May 15, 2023 05:45PM Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? 0.000012
    Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? -0.00015
    Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.086286
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.000066
    Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? 0.263289
    Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? 0.002977
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? -0.000404
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.062075
     
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