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o-maverick

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2022 Season Stats

2.757281

Relative Brier Score

363

Forecasts

16

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 37 59 494 329 1263
Comments 4 4 37 21 86
Questions Forecasted 37 37 94 64 213
Upvotes on Comments By This User 4 8 89 71 167
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
o-maverick made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
o-maverick made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
o-maverick made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
90% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
o-maverick made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
60% (0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
35% (0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
5% (0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
o-maverick made their 12th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (-2%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (-8%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (-14%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (+24%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?

If there was a chance for a new round of negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program, it is no more considering Israel's humiliating attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis in the past weeks. The trend/expectation now is for a nuclear race, not nuclear elimination/limitation.


https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/09/30/iran-could-race-for-the-bomb-after-the-decapitation-of-hizbullah

https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/articles/conflict-and-security/failed-negotiations-restore-iran-nuclear-deal 

https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/09/30/the-iranian-nuclear-program-should-be-the-next-target/ 

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Why might you be wrong?

  

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New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
o-maverick made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-4%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

I'm almost zeroing the odds for obvious reasons haha. If, under the current circumstances, Iran is to do something regarding nuclear, it will be to increase enrichment, not limit it.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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