There's a terrible problem with this question, as @LogicCurve has consistently pointed out: can "a limited ground incursion" on Lebanese territory by the IDF be considered a declaration of war?
The resolution criteria provided are somehow unclear:
- This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Israel declares war on Hezbollah or makes an equivalent statement (e.g., announcing the opening of a new front against Hezbollah or officially authorizing “significant military steps” against Hezbollah similar to the authorization against Hamas). For reference, Israel’s cabinet declared war on Hamas on 8 October 2023
To be honest, it does not seem like a declaration of war in the same terms as the one that took place in Gaza. Especially given that the IDF is being very careful with the words used, avoiding at all costs the term "war" when it comes to Lebanon and Hezbollah.
IDF is currently talking about "small, ‘limited’ raids in Lebanon." (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/) How are we supposed to work with that? hahah
However, the (likely ongoing) ground incursion that is about to be initiated definitely raises the possibility of actual war with Hezbollah. Especially if the Shiite group manages to restore command and control and go for full-scale retaliation. If they hurt Israel for good, then there might be an unequivocal escalation.
Given that I believe a ground incursion (a "new phase") will likely be very messy and bloody and draw a lot of Israeli resources, I believe it could be considered the "opening of a new front" in the terms used for the question resolution.
Therefore, I'm raising the odds above the 50/50 threshold, but not so much so that it does not mess up so much of my Brier Score. hahaha
And it seems it is about to happen: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israel-says-next-phase-of-war-with-hezbollah-in-lebanon-to-begin-soon
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/
There's a terrible problem with this question, as @LogicCurve has consistently pointed out: can "a limited ground incursion" on Lebanese territory by the IDF be considered a declaration of war?
The resolution criteria provided are somehow unclear:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Israel declares war on Hezbollah or makes an equivalent statement (e.g., announcing the opening of a new front against Hezbollah or officially authorizing “significant military steps” against Hezbollah similar to the authorization against Hamas). For reference, Israel’s cabinet declared war on Hamas on 8 October 2023
To be honest, it does not seem like a declaration of war in the same terms as the one that took place in Gaza. Especially given that the IDF is being very careful with the words used, avoiding at all costs the term "war" when it comes to Lebanon and Hezbollah.
IDF is currently talking about "small, ‘limited’ raids in Lebanon." (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/) How are we supposed to work with that? hahah
However, the (likely ongoing) ground incursion that is about to be initiated definitely raises the possibility of actual war with Hezbollah. Especially if the Shiite group manages to restore command and control and go for full-scale retaliation. If they hurt Israel for good, then there might be an unequivocal escalation.
Given that I believe a ground incursion (a "new phase") will likely be very messy and bloody and draw a lot of Israeli resources, I believe it could be considered the "opening of a new front" in the terms used for the question resolution.
Therefore, I'm raising the odds above the 50/50 threshold, but not so much so that it does not mess up so much of my Brier Score. hahaha
And it seems it is about to happen: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israel-says-next-phase-of-war-with-hezbollah-in-lebanon-to-begin-soon
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/30/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza/