4.256689
Relative Brier Score
425
Forecasts
74
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 37 | 59 | 494 | 329 | 1263 |
Comments | 4 | 4 | 37 | 21 | 86 |
Questions Forecasted | 37 | 37 | 94 | 64 | 213 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 8 | 89 | 71 | 167 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
35%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
5%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(0%)
Yes
66%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(-8%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(-14%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(+24%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?
If there was a chance for a new round of negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program, it is no more considering Israel's humiliating attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis in the past weeks. The trend/expectation now is for a nuclear race, not nuclear elimination/limitation.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/09/30/the-iranian-nuclear-program-should-be-the-next-target/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-4%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
I'm almost zeroing the odds for obvious reasons haha. If, under the current circumstances, Iran is to do something regarding nuclear, it will be to increase enrichment, not limit it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files