Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000667
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Yes
67%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
Yes
67%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's a question of consumer confidence. Someone is going to want to be out in front of this and claim the moniker of "most organic" (human centric).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
On the other hand, they just don't care. The users are the product, not the consumers. Advertisers don't care as much WHY people are reading their ads, just that they are, and AI can help with that.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Only death will unseat Putin. I have been watching and analyzing this man and the Kremlin for 30 years.
Files