pschroeder

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1.536896

Relative Brier Score

68

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 68
Comments 0 0 0 0 52
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 15
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 1
 Definitions


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pschroeder
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

None of the top 20 has joined as of April, neither have other large brands (so far only 5 companies), this coalition does not seem to have sufficient leverage to pull in chemical and oil companies.

 

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Why might you be wrong?

x

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

China has now scrapped the quarantine requirements for international travelers from 8 January 2023, local lockdowns will also cease from 8 January. These two elements were the main aspects of the zero Covid policy.  If this is not the beginning of the end of Zero Covid, I'm not sure what is...?


https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/26/business/china-travel-covid-quarantine/index.html

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Why might you be wrong?

Decisions could be reversed if cases soar and health systems become overwhelmed.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Extremely Unlikely that there will be an announcement in these last few days.

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Why might you be wrong?

Surprise announcement

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
pschroeder
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 200 billion
5% (+5%)
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion
91% (+76%)
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion
4% (-81%)
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 500 billion
Why do you think you're right?

Less production during 2022 due to Covid restrictions and lockdown impact on manufacturing.

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Why might you be wrong?

Published production data might be incorrect.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
pschroeder
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8% (0%)
Less than 5%
84% (0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 10%
8% (0%)
Between 10% and 15%, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than 15%
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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