I am lacking imagination on how that should be possible at this point considering the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. Cf. @404_NOT_FOUND for a good argumentation why the current situation may actually increase the likelihood for the election of a president [0].
[0] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141573
-0.167087
Relative Brier Score
251
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 28 | 28 | 403 | 251 | 2573 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 99 |
| Questions Forecasted | 28 | 28 | 73 | 48 | 212 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 8 | 8 | 25 | 15 | 186 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
98%
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
First forecast based on the the qualified comments by my fellow colleagues @johnnycaffeine, @DKC, @LogicCurve, @cmeinel, @alter_hugo and @Hinterhunter [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Thank you for your insights!
[1] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141404 [2] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141249 [3] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139879 [4] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139783 [5] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139630 [6] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139538
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirming my previous forecast - cf. last forecast by @VidurKapur [1,2].
[1] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/140999 [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/24/us-uk-airstrikes-not-hurt-houthi-military-capability-yemen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-13%)
Yes
75%
(+13%)
No
Lowering.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-8%)
Yes
93%
(+8%)
No
Lowering.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(-2%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Lowering, Russia does not have the luxury to let go of weapons that could be used in their war against Ukraine.
Files
Starting out a bit late, excellent overviews, rationales and discussions provided by @o-maverick, @Tolga, @efosong, @cmeinel, @johnnycaffeine, @DKC and @ctsats [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. Thank you!
[1] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141648 [2] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141529 [3] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141369 [4] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141069 [5] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/140996 [6] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/140647 [7] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139898 [8] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139379