I am lacking imagination on how that should be possible at this point considering the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. Cf. @404_NOT_FOUND for a good argumentation why the current situation may actually increase the likelihood for the election of a president [0].
[0] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141573
0.025259
Relative Brier Score
510
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 28 | 28 | 403 | 251 | 2573 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 99 |
Questions Forecasted | 28 | 28 | 73 | 48 | 212 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 8 | 8 | 25 | 15 | 186 |
Definitions |
First forecast based on the the qualified comments by my fellow colleagues @johnnycaffeine, @DKC, @LogicCurve, @cmeinel, @alter_hugo and @Hinterhunter [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Thank you for your insights!
[1] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141404 [2] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141249 [3] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139879 [4] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139783 [5] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139630 [6] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139538
Confirming my previous forecast - cf. last forecast by @VidurKapur [1,2].
[1] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/140999 [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/24/us-uk-airstrikes-not-hurt-houthi-military-capability-yemen
Confirming my previous forecast.
Confirming my previous forecast.
Lowering.
Lowering.
Confirming my previous forecast.
Lowering, Russia does not have the luxury to let go of weapons that could be used in their war against Ukraine.
Starting out a bit late, excellent overviews, rationales and discussions provided by @o-maverick, @Tolga, @efosong, @cmeinel, @johnnycaffeine, @DKC and @ctsats [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. Thank you!
[1] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141648 [2] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141529 [3] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141369 [4] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141069 [5] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/140996 [6] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/140647 [7] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139898 [8] https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139379