58th

Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler

About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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-0.410625

Relative Brier Score

846

Forecasts

87

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	2	36	366	291	2613
Comments	0	0	7	7	1428
Questions Forecasted	2	34	76	55	219
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	3	26	20	191
Definitions

New Prediction

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

sebawi made their 4th forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

1% (0%)

Yes

Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025

99% (0%)

Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025

Confirming my previous forecast.

Files

Nov 19, 2024 10:03PM UTC

New Badge

sebawi earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

sebawi made their 15th forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

0% (0%)

Yes

Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Nov 19, 2024 09:00PM UTC

New Badge

sebawi earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.

New Prediction

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

sebawi made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

45%

Yes

55%

Potentially underestimating (or overestimating considering the crowd) the Chinese technological capabilities here. Interesting discussion by @cmeinel and @Hinterhunter [0].

https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/144762

Files

Oct 31, 2024 10:39PM UTC

New Prediction

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

sebawi made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

Yes

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

91%

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

First forecast, rammed or otherwise physically attacked is not really a high bar, so I may be too reluctant here.

Files

Oct 31, 2024 10:34PM UTC

New Prediction

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

sebawi made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Argentina

23%

Bolivia

15%

Ecuador

Starting out, still a lot to research & learn.

Files

Oct 31, 2024 10:32PM UTC

New Prediction

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

sebawi made their 2nd forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

45% (0%)

Yes

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

55% (0%)

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Confirming my original forecast.

Files

Oct 31, 2024 09:13PM UTC

New Prediction

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

sebawi made their 11th forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

5% (0%)

Yes

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

95% (0%)

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Confirming my original forecast.

Files

Oct 31, 2024 09:12PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

sebawi made their 11th forecast (view all):

Compare to me

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

4% (-1%)

Yes

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

96% (+1%)

Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Updating.

Files

Oct 31, 2024 09:11PM UTC