58th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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Forecasted Questions
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In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2026 Jan 27, 2025 12%
No 95% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2026 Jan 27, 2025 88%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:25PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 2% 1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive 11% 13%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 53% 50%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 31% 33%
More than or equal to 80 3% 2%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:30PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 35% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 24%
No 65% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 76%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:32PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 5% 7%
Armenia 2% 2%
Georgia 3% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 1% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 1% 6%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 34%
No 90% 66%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 15% 21%
No 85% 79%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%
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