RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	23%	-8%	-1%
No	85%	77%	+8%	+1%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	39%	-4%	+0%
No	65%	61%	+4%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jan 31, 2025	5%	+0%	-1%
No	95%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jan 31, 2025	95%	+0%	+1%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	38%	19%	+19%	+1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	57%	72%	-15%	+1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	3%	8%	-5%	-1%
More than or equal to 40%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	19%	Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025	Jan 31, 2025	22%	-3%	-2%
No	81%	Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025	Jan 31, 2025	78%	+3%	+2%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:11PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	4%	+0%	+1%
No	96%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	96%	+0%	-1%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	6%	-1%	-2%
No	95%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	94%	+1%	+2%

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler

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