Forecasted Questions
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:13PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:13PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 51% | -6% | +3% |
| No | 55% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 49% | +6% | -3% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 3% | 20% | -17% | +0% |
| Bolivia | 23% | 23% | +0% | -2% |
| Ecuador | 15% | 12% | +3% | -2% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 15% | -6% | +4% |
| No | 91% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 85% | +6% | -4% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 25% | +20% | +2% |
| No | 55% | 75% | -20% | -2% |