Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 10% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 91% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 90% | +1% | +1% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 25% | +20% | +3% |
| No | 55% | 75% | -20% | -3% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Feb 19, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |