Confirmed previous forecast
0.025259
Relative Brier Score
510
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 2 | 36 | 366 | 291 | 2613 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1428 |
Questions Forecasted | 2 | 34 | 76 | 55 | 219 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 26 | 20 | 191 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
Yes
55%
No
Potentially underestimating (or overestimating considering the crowd) the Chinese technological capabilities here. Interesting discussion by @cmeinel and @Hinterhunter [0].
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
91%
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
First forecast, rammed or otherwise physically attacked is not really a high bar, so I may be too reluctant here.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Argentina
23%
Bolivia
15%
Ecuador
Starting out, still a lot to research & learn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
55%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirming my original forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirming my original forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-1%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
96%
(+1%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Updating.
Files
Confirming my previous forecast.