First forecast, rammed or otherwise physically attacked is not really a high bar, so I may be too reluctant here.
0.025259
Relative Brier Score
510
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 18 | 35 | 385 | 289 | 2611 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 99 |
Questions Forecasted | 18 | 34 | 78 | 55 | 219 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 191 |
Definitions |
New Badge
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
91%
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Argentina
23%
Bolivia
15%
Ecuador
Starting out, still a lot to research & learn.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
55%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirming my original forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirming my original forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-1%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
96%
(+1%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
19%
(-6%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
81%
(+6%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Less than or equal to 9%
38%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
57%
(+4%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
3%
(-2%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+3%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95%
(-3%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Updating.
Files
Potentially underestimating (or overestimating considering the crowd) the Chinese technological capabilities here. Interesting discussion by @cmeinel and @Hinterhunter [0].
https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/144762