58th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:
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-1.037777

Relative Brier Score

649

Forecasts

66

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 18 35 385 289 2611
Comments 0 0 8 7 99
Questions Forecasted 18 34 78 55 219
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 4 26 20 191
 Definitions
New Badge
sebawi
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction

Potentially underestimating (or overestimating considering the crowd) the Chinese technological capabilities here. Interesting discussion by @cmeinel and @Hinterhunter [0].

https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/144762

Files
New Prediction

First forecast, rammed or otherwise physically attacked is not really a high bar, so I may be too reluctant here.

Files
New Prediction

Starting out, still a lot to research & learn.

Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
55% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Confirming my original forecast.

Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Confirming my original forecast.

Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (-1%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
96% (+1%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Updating.

Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
19% (-6%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
81% (+6%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-2%)
Less than or equal to 9%
38% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
57% (+4%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
3% (-2%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%

Updating.

Files
New Prediction
sebawi
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (+3%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95% (-3%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Updating.

Files
Files
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