58th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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2024 Season Stats

-0.099104

Relative Brier Score

289

Forecasts

20

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 18 35 385 289 2611
Comments 0 0 8 7 99
Questions Forecasted 18 34 78 55 219
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 4 26 20 191
 Definitions
New Badge
sebawi earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction

Potentially underestimating (or overestimating considering the crowd) the Chinese technological capabilities here. Interesting discussion by @cmeinel and @Hinterhunter [0].

https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/144762

Files
New Prediction

First forecast, rammed or otherwise physically attacked is not really a high bar, so I may be too reluctant here.

Files
New Prediction

Starting out, still a lot to research & learn.

Files
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
sebawi made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
55% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Confirming my original forecast.

Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
sebawi made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Confirming my original forecast.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
sebawi made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (-1%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
96% (+1%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Updating.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
sebawi made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
19% (-6%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
81% (+6%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
sebawi made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (-2%)
Less than or equal to 9%
38% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
57% (+4%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
3% (-2%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%

Updating.

Files
New Prediction
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
sebawi made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (+3%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
95% (-3%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Updating.

Files
Files
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