RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 09:11PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	+1%
No	98%	95%	+3%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	2%	2%	+0%	+1%
Lithuania	2%	2%	+0%	+1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	1%	7%	-6%	+1%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:54AM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	8%	+0%	-3%
No	92%	92%	+0%	+3%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 12:58AM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	28%	38%	-10%	+0%
No	72%	62%	+10%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 3, 2025 01:05AM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 4, 2025 11:14PM
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Mar 4, 2025 to Mar 4, 2026	Jun 4, 2025 11:14PM	8%	-4%	+0%
No	96%	Mar 4, 2025 to Mar 4, 2026	Jun 4, 2025 11:14PM	92%	+4%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 01:14PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025	Apr 16, 2025 01:14PM	2%	+2%	-3%
No	96%	Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025	Apr 16, 2025 01:14PM	98%	-2%	+3%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:43AM
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	5%	5%	+0%	-1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	80%	81%	-1%	+0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	15%	13%	+2%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:44AM
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	45%	35%	+11%	-3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	45%	53%	-8%	+2%
More than or equal to 80	5%	8%	-3%	+1%

sigis

Sigitas Keras

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season