RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:43AM
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	5%	5%	+0%	-1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	80%	81%	-1%	+0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	15%	13%	+2%	+1%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:44AM
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	45%	33%	+13%	-5%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	45%	54%	-9%	+3%
More than or equal to 80	5%	9%	-4%	+1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:44AM
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:52AM
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	2%	5%	-3%	+1%
Kenya	3%	5%	-2%	+1%
Ethiopia	100%	23%	+77%	-1%
Nigeria	3%	3%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 01:59AM
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025	Apr 20, 2025 01:59AM	2%	-1%	+1%
No	99%	Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025	Apr 20, 2025 01:59AM	98%	+1%	-1%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 02:52AM
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	20%	51%	-31%	+21%
30 days	20%	11%	+9%	-8%
31-60 days	5%	12%	-7%	-1%
61-90 days	5%	11%	-6%	+3%
91 days or more	50%	16%	+34%	-14%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 04:21PM
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	38%	Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025	Apr 20, 2025 04:21PM	44%	-6%	+4%
No	62%	Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025	Apr 20, 2025 04:21PM	56%	+6%	-4%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 24, 2025 06:10AM
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 24, 2025 06:10AM
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 24, 2025 06:11AM
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Mar 24, 2025 to Sep 24, 2026	Jun 24, 2025 06:11AM	10%	-3%	-1%
No	93%	Mar 24, 2025 to Sep 24, 2026	Jun 24, 2025 06:11AM	90%	+3%	+1%

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