RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC	How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021	-0.046418
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC	How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021	-0.006988
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.149286
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.101006
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.009684
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.001026
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.020251
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	0.005502
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	-0.035538
Jan 04, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.085089
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.029563
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.140209
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	-0.082793
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	-0.003065
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC	Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?	0.036161
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.007387
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.096708
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	-0.001703
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	0.035502
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.01141

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