RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 13, 2024 04:59AM UTC	Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2024 and Feb 13, 2024)	-0.139745
Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	0.000503
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.010654
Feb 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024)	0.0
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	0.000339
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)	0.000181
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.011044
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	-0.218931
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?	0.035515
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)	0.000429
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.026272
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.017475
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.000822
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.03198
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.000096
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	-0.043569
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	-0.055044
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023)	0.0
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)	0.0002
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	-0.00012

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